The Effect of Outstanding Loan, Non-Performing Loan, and Loan Growth on Fintech P2P Lending Profitability
Abstract
Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to analyze the effect of Outstanding Loans, Non-Performing Loans, and Loan Growth on profitability in the Fintech Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending industry in Indonesia. The fintech P2P lending industry in Indonesia has grown rapidly, but profitability performance has shown instability despite increasing loan disbursement, indicating an imbalance between loan growth and credit quality. Novelty: This research offers originality through the use of monthly aggregate data from the Indonesian fintech P2P lending industry, analyzed within both short-term and long-term frameworks using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of financing, credit quality, and profitability. Research Methods: This study employs a quantitative approach using 36 monthly aggregate time-series observations from January 2022 to December 2024, obtained from the Fintech Lending Statistics Report published by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). The analysis utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. Finding/Results: The results indicate that in the short run, Outstanding Loans have a negative and significant effect only at lag 3, while Non-Performing Loans and Loan Growth show no significant effects. In the long run, Outstanding Loans and Non-Performing Loans have negative and significant effects on profitability, whereas Loan Growth has a positive but insignificant effect. Conclusion: Profitability depends more on effective loan management and credit quality than on loan growth alone, making sound credit risk management essential for sustainability.
References
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Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Suroso, S. S., Afrah Junita, & Mayang Murni. (2025). Determinan Pertumbuhan Laba Pada Perusahaan Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Mahasiswa Akuntansi Samudra, 6(2), 117–129. https://doi.org/10.33059/jmas.v6i2.11108
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Wu, S.-W., Nguyen, M.-T., & Nguyen, P.-H. (2022). Does loan growth impact on bank risk? Heliyon, 8(8), e10319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10319
Wu, S. W., Nguyen, M. T., & Nguyen, P. H. (2022). Does loan growth impact on bank risk? Heliyon, 8(8), e10319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10319
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Yuttama, F. R. (2024). The Impact Of Non-Performing Loans And The Bi Rate On Return On Assets. Jurnal EBI, 6(1), 19–26. https://doi.org/10.52061/ebi.v6i1.237
Zaid, M., & Farooque Khan, M. (2023). Non-Performing Loans Effects on Profitability and Lending Behavior of Commercial Banks: Evidence from Yemeni Commercial Banks Sector. Studies in Economics and Business Relations, 3(2), 28–35. https://doi.org/10.48185/sebr.v3i2.737
Zuhroh, I., Rofik, M., & Suliswanto, M. S. W. (2022). Non-Performing Loans: Endogenous Constraint on the Credit–Growth Nexus. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 12(8), 659–672. https://doi.org/10.55493/5002.v12i8.4584
Agustin, A. (2025). Macroeconomic Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans In Indonesia’s Peer-To-Peer Lending Sector. Finansha: Journal of Sharia Financial Management, 6(1), 66–78. https://doi.org/10.15575/fjsfm.v6i1.45136
Alnabulsi, K., Kozarević, E., & Hakimi, A. (2023). Non-Performing Loans and Net Interest Margin in the MENA Region: Linear and Non-Linear Analyses. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(2), 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11020064
Arthur-Sam, J. (2025). The Effect of Non-Performing Loans on the Profitability of Banks in Africa. International Journal of Applied Research in Business and Management, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.51137/wrp.ijarbm.2025.jatt.45720
Azhar, N., Pambudi, A. N., Helmi, & Nurwanti. (2023). Analysis of Internal Factors Affecting Peer To Peer Lending Revenue (Case Study at PT.Pasar Dana Pinjaman in. Issue Period, 7(4), 2598–8700. https://doi.org/10.52362/jisamar.v7i4.1265
Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2021). Fundamentals of financial management (16th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Cheng, Q., Wang, Y., & Song, X. (2019). Study on Principal-agent Theory. https://doi.org/10.35532/JSSS.V1.015
Chuesta, R. N. B., Sanga, K. P., & Gheta, A. P. . (2024). Peran Agency Theory Terkait Manajemen Risiko Kredit dalam Upaya Meminimalisir Kredit Bermasalah pada KSP Kopdit Obor Mas Kanca Pasar Alok. BUDGETING : Journal of Business, Management and Accounting, 5(2), 1354–1359. https://doi.org/10.31539/budgeting.v5i2.9215
Chun, S.-H., & Ardaaragchaa, N. (2024). Analysis of Factors Affecting the Loan Growth of Banks with a Focus on Non-Performing Loans. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(5), 203. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17050203
Dwitama, A., & Hasanudin, H. (2024). The Influence Of Loan Growth, Loan To Assets, And Size On Return On Assets Through Non-Performing Loans In Banking Companies. Jurnal Apresiasi Ekonomi, 12(3), 613–632. https://doi.org/10.31846/jae.v12i3.837
Fairuz, A., Wibowo, H., Setyadi, E. J., & Mudjiyanti, R. (2023). Pengaruh Non-Performing Loans, Keputusan Investasi, dan Umur Perusahaan terhadap Tobin’s Q pada Perusahaan Sub-Sektor Perbankan Konvensional. Ekonika : Jurnal Ekonomi Universitas Kadiri, 8(1), 163–179. https://doi.org/10.30737/ekonika.v8i1.3785
Faizah, I., Ariyadi, A., Ella May Rina, D., & Yalil Rezkiani, E. (2024). Profitability Ratio Analysis in Measuring Financial Performance in Islamic Banking Listed on the IDX (2021-2023). Al-Mashrof: Islamic Banking and Finance, 5(2), 166. https://doi.org/10.24042/al-mashrof.v5i2.24788
Glazkova, G., & Hanova, L. (2022). Credit Risk Assessment During the Audit of Commercial Bank Statements. Auditor, 8(1), 42–48. https://doi.org/10.12737/1998-0701-2022-8-1-42-48
Goh, T. S., Simanjuntak, A., & Henry, H. (2024). Pengaruh Profitabilitas dan Leverage terhadap Nilai Perusahaan dengan Kebijakan Dividen sebagai Variabel Moderasi pada Perusahaan Konstruksi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jesya, 7(1), 552–565. https://doi.org/10.36778/jesya.v7i1.1379
Hantono. (2018). Konsep Analisa Laporan Keuangan dengan Pendekatan Rasio dan SPSS. Yogyakarta: Deepublish.
Hasna, I. N., Suherman, A., & Indrawan, A. (2024). Analisis Kredit Bermasalah Dan Penyaluran Kredit Dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Pendapatan Perusahaan. Jurnal Revenue : Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 5(1), 1155–1166. https://doi.org/10.46306/rev.v5i1.574
Hery. (2015). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. CAPS (Center for Academic Publishing Service).
Investortrust. (2025). OJK catat ada 22 fintech lending punya TWP 90 di atas 5%.
Jaya, B. J., Hefri, B. N. F., Suryanti, A., & Wulandari, T. R. (2024). The relationship between loan growth, risk, and bank performance: Evidence from Indonesia. Sebelas Maret Business Review, 9(2), 96. https://doi.org/10.20961/smbr.v9i2.86560
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X
Kadyrzhanova, D., Pérez-Orive, A., & Singer, E. (2024). Stress Testing the Corporate Debt Servicing Capacity: A Scenario Analysis. FEDS Notes, 5/9/2024, None-None. https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3481
Kayani, U., Dsouza, S., Husain, Z., Nawaz, F., & Hasan, F. (2025). Does the performance of financial technology (fintech) firms matter: evidence from North American and European fintech firms. Cogent Economics and Finance, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2025.2451050
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan.
Kuncoro, M., & Suhardjono. (2011). Manajemen Perbankan: Teori & Aplikasi. Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Lee, S. (2025). Introduction to P2P Lending in Southeast Asia. Www.Numberanalytics.Com. https://www.numberanalytics.com/blog/p2p-lending-southeast-asia-guide
Makarchuk, I., Perchuk, O., & Korkach, I. (2022). Liquidity: the genesis of the concept, structure and its role in the financial relations of economic entities. University Economic Bulletin, 52, 113–122. https://doi.org/10.31470/2306-546X-2022-52-113-122
Malasulastri, S. I., & Rosa, T. (2023). Pengaruh Analisis Rasio Profitabilitas dan Solvabilitas untuk Menilai Kinerja Keuangan pada Suatu Perusahaan. Journal of Accounting, Management, Economics, and Business (ANALYSIS), 1(2), 136–147. https://doi.org/10.56855/analysis.v1i2.220
Maulana, Y., Harjadi, D., & Lismawati, L. (2023). Pengaruh Kredit Bermasalah Dan Penyaluran Kredit Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Bumn Terdaftar Bei. Equilibrium: Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Dan Ekonomi, 20(01), 55–61. https://doi.org/10.25134/equi.v20i01.6759
Nazar, M. R. N., & Mawarni, A. (2023). Return On Asset, Return On Equity, And Net Profit Margin: Influence Stock Price. Jurnal E-Bis, 7(2), 444–457. https://doi.org/10.37339/e-bis.v7i2.1273
Nguyen, D. T., & Le, T. D. Q. (2022). The interrelationships between bank profitability, bank stability and loan growth in Southeast Asia. Cogent Business and Management, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2022.2084977
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2024). Financing Institutions, Venture Capital, Fintech P2P Lending and Micro‑Finance Industry Update: December 2024. https://iru.ojk.go.id/iru/dataandstatistics/detaildataandstatistics/13379/
Panda, B., & Leepsa, N. M. (2017). Agency theory: Review of Theory and Evidence on Problems and Perspectives. Indian Journal of Corporate Governance, 10(1), 74–95. https://doi.org/10.1177/0974686217701467
Reddy, M. G. D. (2023). Banking With A Focus On Credit Risk (pp. 59–64). https://doi.org/10.58532/V3BFMA13P2CH2
Ringan, A. Y., & Pratama, M. F. (2024). Analisis Profitabilitas dalam Menilai Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Pertambangan pada PT. Bumi Adika Pratama. Jurnal Economina, 3(1), 74–86. https://doi.org/10.55681/economina.v3i1.1132
Saraswati, E., Azzahra, A., & Sagitaputri, A. (2020). Corporate Governance Mechanisms and Voluntary Disclosure. AKRUAL: Jurnal Akuntansi, 11(2), 82. https://doi.org/10.26740/jaj.v11n2.p82-94
Sari, H., Prapanca, D., Setiyono, V., & Wanti, F. (2022). Impact of Liquidity, Profitability, and Debt Policy Against The Value Of The Company. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference of Business, Accounting, and Economics, ICBAE 2022, 10-11 August 2022, Purwokerto, Central Java, Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.10-8-2022.2320883
Sari, P. B. (2019). Factors Affecting The Non Performing Loan. Accounting and Business Journal, 1(2), 24. https://doi.org/10.54248/abj.v1i2.971
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Suroso, S. S., Afrah Junita, & Mayang Murni. (2025). Determinan Pertumbuhan Laba Pada Perusahaan Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Mahasiswa Akuntansi Samudra, 6(2), 117–129. https://doi.org/10.33059/jmas.v6i2.11108
Tuanaya, M. F., & Prasetya, B. P. (2024). Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Kepemilikan Manajerial dan Pertumbuhan Perusahaan Terhadap Kebijakan Utang. Digital Bisnis: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmu Manajemen Dan E-Commerce, 3(2), 243–252. https://doi.org/10.30640/digital.v3i2.2627
Wijaya, N., Fransiska, F., Butar-Butar, R. S., & Sirait, D. E. P. (2024). Analisis Rasio Profitabilitas Yang Dapat Berfungsi Menilai Kinerja Keuangan Pada Perusahaan Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2018 – 2021. Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), 7(5), 1025–1035. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i5.11821
Wilasmi, N. K. S., Kepramareni, P., & Ardianti, P. N. H. (2020). Pengaruh Ukuran Perusahaan, Perputaran Kas, Perputaran Piutang, Dan Perputaran Persediaan Terhadap Profitabilitas. Jurnal Kharisma, 2(2716–2710), 96–115.
Wu, S.-W., Nguyen, M.-T., & Nguyen, P.-H. (2022). Does loan growth impact on bank risk? Heliyon, 8(8), e10319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10319
Wu, S. W., Nguyen, M. T., & Nguyen, P. H. (2022). Does loan growth impact on bank risk? Heliyon, 8(8), e10319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10319
Yudha, A. T. R. C. (2021). Fintech syariah dalam sistem industri halal: Teori dan praktik. Syiah Kuala University Press.
Yuttama, F. R. (2024). The Impact Of Non-Performing Loans And The Bi Rate On Return On Assets. Jurnal EBI, 6(1), 19–26. https://doi.org/10.52061/ebi.v6i1.237
Zaid, M., & Farooque Khan, M. (2023). Non-Performing Loans Effects on Profitability and Lending Behavior of Commercial Banks: Evidence from Yemeni Commercial Banks Sector. Studies in Economics and Business Relations, 3(2), 28–35. https://doi.org/10.48185/sebr.v3i2.737
Zuhroh, I., Rofik, M., & Suliswanto, M. S. W. (2022). Non-Performing Loans: Endogenous Constraint on the Credit–Growth Nexus. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 12(8), 659–672. https://doi.org/10.55493/5002.v12i8.4584
Published
2026-10-31
How to Cite
SANTIKA, Aulia et al.
The Effect of Outstanding Loan, Non-Performing Loan, and Loan Growth on Fintech P2P Lending Profitability.
Jurnal Cendekia Keuangan, [S.l.], v. 5, n. 2, p. 89-102, oct. 2026.
ISSN 2810-0964.
Available at: <https://ejournal.uniska-kediri.ac.id/index.php/JCK/article/view/9234>. Date accessed: 17 oct. 2026.
doi: https://doi.org/10.32503/jck.v5i2.9234.
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Articles
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