Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan PDB Terhadap Harga Saham Melalui ROA Gudang Garam

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on stock prices with financial performance (ROA) as a mediating variable at PT Gudang Garam Tbk from 2017 to 2024. Using a quantitative explanatory design, 32 quarterly data points were selected through purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using path analysis in SPSS 22.0. The results show that GDP growth has a positive and significant direct effect on stock price (, ), and ROA has a highly significant positive effect on stock price (, ). However, inflation has no significant effect on stock price (, ) or ROA (, ). GDP also has no significant effect on ROA (, ). Consequently, ROA does not mediate the effects of inflation or GDP on stock price. Investors should prioritize internal financial indicators over macro indicators when evaluating individual stocks.